With only a month left in the regular season, it never seems too early to be discussing the NBA playoff picture. The Western Conference, as always, is very competitive, with a few teams clustered in the middle seeding behind the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs – with the Los Angeles Lakers jockeying for position against three other high-tier teams in the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Lakers have had to deal with a number of injury problems, and there have been stretches this season where they have not looked like a competitive team in any way. Be that as it may, at the time of writing, the Lakers have a record of 40-25, which puts them in fourth place in the West standings.
Last season, it looked like the Lakers had a manageable first-round matchup against the Timberwolves. Minnesota swallowed them whole in the glass. There is no such thing as an easy matchup in the West, but some potential matchups may be easier than others.
Ultimately, this is a first-round matchup the Lakers will want to avoid at all costs.
Lakers say no to another playoff showdown vs. Nuggets
The four aforementioned teams competing for position in the West are playing musical chairs, meaning that every win and every loss causes them to change their position in the standings. Realistically, the Lakers could face any of those three teams in the first round of the playoffs, with the Phoenix Suns within striking distance of those four teams - so they're also emerging as a potential first-round matchup.
But among those teams, the Lakers would like to avoid a first-round matchup against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets for obvious reasons.
The Nuggets faced the Lakers in the 2023 and 2024 NBA playoffs, and the purple and gold could not challenge Denver. They were keeping the game closed, but the story was all too familiar; Jokic would take over and hit ridiculous shots, and Jamal Murray would make things worse by hitting clutch shots of his own to put the Lakers away.
It's hard to think that anything will be much different with Doncic still on the roster. Doncic provided the Lakers with a greater offensive level and ceiling than when Anthony Davis was on the team, but their defense is now even more helpless against Jokic without Bro.
This was very evident in their recent clash; The Lakers had to resort to fake defensive coverages to slow down Jokic, and it's hard to see that working in a playoff setting where the Nuggets can gameplan for Marcus Smart coverages as well as Rui Hachimura matchups.
That series will be an offensive bloodbath, but suffice it to say that the Nuggets have a more explosive offense and a better superstar in Jokic. Deandre Ayton is not the answer, and never was. The Lakers can probably win at least a game or two in this playoff matchup, but in a seven-game series, their lack of size and defensive problems on the perimeter will make it impossible to win four against Denver.
Their aggressive defense against Jokic will force a lot of turnovers from the Lakers defense, and it doesn't seem like the best idea at all to have a team with a backcourt of Doncic and Reeves have to cover a ton of ground on that end of the floor.
As far as other matchups, the Lakers can definitely handle the Rockets and Timberwolves, and they have the talent advantage over the Suns if it comes down to it.
Houston's offense can be a clogged toilet at times, as they have to labor to take open shots, which will work in the Lakers' favor as they have two explosive scoring guards in Doncic and Reaves. Houston doesn't have as many offensive weapons as Denver, which will shorten the rotation for LA, making life easier.
He has the Timberwolves' number this season; They swept the season series and learned a lot from their embarrassing first round loss last season. Ayton has been disappointing down the stretch this season, but he has helped tremendously in Timberwolves matchups where he was dominant against Rudy Gobert last year.
Seeing how Dillon Brooks makes LeBron James' life miserable, the Suns could be a difficult matchup. Whatever the case, Doncic has beaten Devin Booker and the Suns in the past, and the Lakers should have the best player on the floor in that matchup.
Ultimately, the Nuggets are looking like the worst possible matchup for the Lakers, and L.A. will be begging the West standings to swing in their favor in a month's time.
