It may be hard to remember now, but the Golden State Warriors once had high expectations for the 2025-26 season. Their 2025 NBA playoff run ended in the second round, but that was mostly due to Stephen Curry's hamstring injury, which the Dubs did not force him to return prematurely.
However, the Warriors' injury problems went from bad to worse this season. In fact, his injury situation has been straight up one of his nightmares. First, an errant pass from Brandin Podziemski caused Jimmy Butler to go down with a torn ACL. And now, Curry is dealing with persistent knee problems that are unlikely to go away, considering he is already 38 years old.
The Dubs then complicated matters by acquiring Kristaps Porzingis, a man who is battling a chronic illness, and veteran big man Al Horford is also sidelined. Same goes for Moses Moody.
As a result, the Warriors have fallen off a cliff, and are now the 10th-place team in the Western Conference with a 33-36 record. This isn't at all what the Dubs imagined their 2025-26 season would look like, and given the uncertainty surrounding Curry's injury status, there doesn't appear to be much hope available for the team as far as their competitive dreams this year go.
The Warriors will be hoping to make the most of Curry's final comeback and at least qualify for the playoffs. However, things can always go from bad to worse in the NBA.
Warriors' nightmare scenario: Finish 10th, lose 9/10 play-in games
If there's a silver lining to the Warriors' current situation, it's that they'll have to try and lose on purpose so they're completely out of the play-in tournament picture. The Dubs are only 13 games into the season, and they are 8.5 games ahead of the 11th-place Memphis Grizzlies in the win-loss column.
Not only is this an insurmountable loss for the Grizzlies, but Memphis also has no incentive to do so given that they have embarked on a major rebuild.
However, it only provides cool comfort. They have gone just 2-8 in their last 10 games. They're putting together a ragtag group on a nightly basis, and they're playing in the background most nights. Curry is close to returning, but there is no specific timeline yet for when he will be back.
Another good news is that the rest of the Dubs' schedule isn't too difficult. According to Tankathon, they have the 22nd toughest schedule left, with only six of their last 13 games coming against teams above .500. However, the Los Angeles Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers, both the teams they are battling for in the battle for the eighth seed, somehow have easier schedules.
Combined with this and Curry's absence, it is difficult to support the Warriors as a favorite for the eighth or ninth seed. The Clippers have faced another tough stretch (at least it feels like they have), and Benedict Mathurin will be sidelined indefinitely, but they have Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland healthy. Meanwhile, the Blazers have Deni Avdija leading the way, as he has played in all of their last six games.
Getting the 10th seed would be a nightmare for the Warriors. For starters, it will force them to play their 9/10 play-in games on the road. This season, the Warriors have a 14–21 record away from Chase Center (compared to 19–15 at home). Facing a must-win situation without the support of the home crowd doesn't sound very attractive.
Of course, the Warriors have the advantage of experience compared to the Blazers, and once Curry returns, they can definitely go head-to-head with the Clippers. The Warriors have gone a combined 2-5 against those two teams this season.
So in short, they are facing the teams they have struggled against this year, in a do-or-die situation, with the potential to do so on the road. And if they ultimately win those 9/10 games, they will have to win one more game, once again on the road, to book a first-round matchup against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
Still, it's much more attractive than the nightmare scenario, which is that they'll be eliminated from the postseason without a single win to their name. It's just a sign that the end of an era for the Warriors is truly here, as if it hasn't already arrived.
