Who will win the NBA Championship this year? While the 2026 NBA Finals won't start until June and we're not even at the end of the regular season, it seems like we've seen enough to predict which clubs are making a realistic attempt at winning it this year.
Let's take a look at our ranking of the NBA Finals contenders. If a team is not listed, we do not believe they have a viable path to winning the championship this season.
1.Oklahoma City Thunder
Even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell each missing significant time this season, the Oklahoma City Thunder are likely to finish the regular season with the best record in the NBA. Through 70 games, Oklahoma City has allowed the second-fewest PPG (107.5), lowest opponents' field goal percentage (43.4 percent) and its league-best 11.0 net rating is equal to the combined net value of the fourth (San Antonio Spurs) and 10th-best teams (Minnesota Timberwolves) in the NBA. SGA is now healthy and consistently performing better than last season, Mitchell is back and Williams should be ready for the playoffs. Additionally, thanks to Daryl Morey trading away Jared McCain, the Thunder's rotation is deeper than last season.
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2. San Antonio Spurs
The last time the San Antonio Spurs appeared in the NBA playoffs (2019), Victor Wembanyama was 15 years old and De'Aaron Fox was in his second season with the Sacramento Kings. It's actually the very limited postseason experience on the Spurs roster that we are lacking with the team. That said, San Antonio went 4-1 against Oklahoma City with a +26 point differential in the regular season and Wembanyama has been able to dominate Chet Holmgren in a series. Plus, it's been made clear that the likes of Stephen Cassel, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Dylan Harper have just as bad feelings toward the Thunder as Wambayama. If we're picking anyone outside of Oklahoma City to win the NBA Finals, it's San Antonio.
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3. Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics entered the weekend with a 6-1 record with Jayson Tatum in the lineup. Admittedly we were a little concerned about the decision to bring him back from a torn Achilles so soon, but the perennial All-Star forward has really impressed in his return. This is now a lineup that features two MVP-caliber performers in Tatum and Jaylen Brown, while Derrick White may be the best No. 3 player on any team in the NBA. Boston has the most playoff experience in the Eastern Conference and we can confidently say that this is the best coached team we have ever seen. It's just a question of how Tatum performs during the playoffs and whether a sub-.500 record against top-10 teams is a sign that Boston can withstand an upset in the NBA Finals.
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4. Denver Nuggets
Ranking the Denver Nuggets fourth among potential NBA Finals contenders is all about Nikola Jokic. He currently ranks fourth in the NBA playoffs in career win shares per 48 minutes (.2298). If you just focus on the last four years, Jokic has an absurd 0.25 WS/48 and has averaged 28.7 points, 13.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game while shooting 53.5 percent from the field in his last 51 playoff games. With Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon healthy, they don't need to carry much for Denver. Denver's 10-12 record over the last 22 games should ring some alarm bells and Cam Johnson has been a big disappointment, but we'll never underestimate Jokic's ability to lead his team to the NBA Finals.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
Are the Cleveland Cavaliers a better team with James Harden than Darius Garland? Yes, we definitely have more confidence in their chances of making the playoffs this season after the trade. That said, Harden's proven reputation for collapsing in win-or-home playoff games is a serious concern for Cleveland. There's already plenty of evidence that the Jarrett Allen-Evan Mobley frontcourt pairing doesn't work well in the NBA playoffs, even with the performance Donovan Mitchell has had at that time of the year (28.3 ppg) for Cleveland. The Cavaliers have a chance to win the Eastern Conference, but this team will likely need a significant injury in the West to win the NBA Finals.
6. New York Knicks
It's now or never situation for the New York Knicks. Mike Brown was brought in during the offseason with the hopes that he would make enough changes to ensure that Madison Square Garden would host multiple NBA Finals games. From February 1 to March 20, New York posted a respectable 16–7 record with a +8.7 point differential and included wins over the Nuggets, Spurs, and Rockets. There's a strong case for the Detroit Pistons in this spot, but we're giving the Knicks a slight edge due to their playoff experience.
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