Before the Raiders hit the clock, I want to go on the record.
Every year I do this. Every year, some of these age beautifully and some of them get screenshotted and thrown back in my face by people in my mentions who have been waiting since April to do the exact same thing. Good. This is the deal. You want accountable tech, they're here.
Let's start with the obvious and get it out of the way.
Fernando Mendoza has become number 1. I'm really going out on a limb here, aren't I? The Raiders took over an Indiana quarterback who went 16–0, won a Heisman, threw 41 touchdowns against six interceptions and completed 72% of his passes in a national championship season. It takes almost zero courage to predict this. John Spytek said he has received calls about the selection and that teams "know where they stand." This GM means stop calling us.
Mendoza is a Raider as of Thursday night at 8:15 pm Eastern time. write it down.
Now this is where it gets interesting.
How the top of the draft plays out past Mendoza
Jets It's two o'clock and I'm taking Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey over Ohio State's Arvel Reese. I know this is an unpopular approach. Reese is the unanimous choice, the athleticism darling, the guy most analysts have cornered. I don't care. The Jets aren't drafting for upside right now - they're drafting for production. Bailey led the Big 12 with 14.5 sacks last season, posted 19.5 tackles for loss, and was disruptive every week against real competition. Reese has a high ceiling. Bailey has a track record. New York has been trying to replace their pass rush for half a decade and they don't have the luxury of waiting on the potential Bailey already has to develop. The Jets took Bailey, and in two years no one remembered it being a surprise. But, this is a prediction that most of you will take a screenshot of.
Cornell Tate could not advance further than eighth place. On most boards he's going somewhere between six and nine, and I'm not arguing with that range. He's the most complete receiver in this class, a legitimate route runner who draws comparisons to Justin Jefferson from people whose opinions I really respect. Cleveland needs a receiver so badly that if he's there at six, they're not waiting. If it somehow falls, someone will do the business. Tate is leaving quickly with a smile on his face.
Omar Cooper Jr. is the wild card of the first round. Most big boards right now have him going between 13 and 16 — Dan Brugler at The Athletic has him ranked 21st overall, NFL.com's Mock continues to have him landing at 13 on the Rams, and Todd McShay has him in the middle of the first round. Daniel Jeremiah expressed the possibility that he would lose in the second round. I think the truth lies somewhere between the consensus and Jeremiah. His receiving totals never topped 1,000 yards in college, and for all the athleticism and yards after the catch, NFL teams are going to be talking to themselves before Thursday night is over. He doesn't make it to Round 2, but he doesn't make it to Round 13 either. Cooper lands somewhere in the 18-22 range, and whoever took him there feels like they stole something.
What about the Raiders in Round 2?
Now – Raiders at 36.
The receiver board in this location is actually quite interesting. Zachariah Branch, Kevin Concepcion, and Isaiah Bonds all sit in that late-first to mid-second tier, and in most years at least one – if not two – of them are gone before the Raiders even get on the clock. Concepcion, in particular, is a mid-20s player on a lot of boards and probably shouldn't have gotten here. If he does that, this type of slide teams onto the podium quickly. Any one of them makes sense here.
But the name I remember over and over again is Jeremy Bernard. The Alabama receiver doesn't have the buzz of the top names in this class, but he weighs in at 6-1, 206 pounds and led the Crimson Tide in catches last season with 50 receptions for 794 yards. Dan Brugler called him a favorite among scouts and coaches, especially because of his versatility in all formations and his competitive mentality. He's not a slam dunk pick here - Branch and Bonds both have arguments - but if Spytek is building around Mendoza's comfort and wants a receiver who can line up at multiple spots and work quickly, Bernard fits that profile better than anyone else at this level. Kubiak will find ways to get him the ball.
Either way, the Raiders come out of Round 2 with a pass catcher. I'll bet on it.
Attackers in Round 3 and beyond
When Vegas gets to 67 in round 3, I think SpyTech goes to the rescue. Specifically, defensive tackle. McDonald visited Henderson and everyone keeps throwing up his name, but let's be honest - Kayden McDonald is an intriguing prospect. Many boards have him in the mid to late round of the first round, and if he somehow ends up in the late part of Round 2, Spytek should be trading on the phone, not sitting and waiting. He will no longer be there at the age of 67.
A more realistic target is Domonique Orange out of Iowa State. He visited Henderson, he weighs 325 pounds and projects as a round 3-4 pick across the board. He's not a pass rusher, but in Rob Leonard's 3-4, the nose tackle's job is to hold the point of attack and keep the linebackers clean. Orange does exactly that.
Chris McClellan from Missouri is another name here. He also visited, and what separates him from the Orange isn't pass-rush production (scouts doubt that part of his game), it's versatility. McClellan can line up anywhere from zero-technique to 4i, which gives a defensive coordinator more options depending on personnel. One of them is a raider as of Saturday morning.
The secondary is addressed on the third day with at least one selection of the fourth round. Three fourth rounders are a luxury. Spytek uses one on a cornerback - I guess Delenn Everett from Georgia visited. The projection range on Everett is wide, anywhere from the end of Day 2 to the beginning of Day 3, so nabbing him with one of those fourth-round picks is realistic without a stretch.
The running back comes in on day three. There's the name of Indiana's Kellon Black – physical runner, strong in pass protection, and running backs to that national championship with Mendoza in two seasons. He projects in the fifth or sixth round, right where the Raiders have options sitting. You're not asking him to go back to being featured. You're asking him to provide a capable rotation option to Ashton Jeanty and contribute on special teams. Black can do this.
Then there's Boston College offensive lineman Logan Taylor, who made the top 30 with the Raiders. He weighs 6-7, 314 pounds and started games at all four positions on the line in college – left tackle, left guard, right guard, right tackle. He is not someone who has wandered into a position; He is a man who has learned how to play football. You don't need that to get started. You need him to give your offensive line room a reliable backup who can plug in anywhere when things get rough, and Taylor provides exactly that. He is the person chosen for the third day who fits the role of the third day perfectly.
Then it's a receiver, a safety or two, a linebacker that makes your special teams coach smile. The third day is where you throw darts and hope one of them sticks.
Here's my main takeaway: The Raiders will not be a contender in 2026. Anyone telling you otherwise is not straight with you. Six wins, maybe seven, is a realistic outcome in Year 1 of this rebuild. But a good draft – a Mendoza, a receiver at 36, a nose tackle at 67, secondary depth in Round 4, and a running back with system familiarity at the end of Day 3 – sets this thing up nicely for 2027 and beyond.
Check back Friday morning. I will remain here, either paying obeisance or explaining myself.
maybe both.
