The first-round series between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning is tied at one game each, giving the Habs a perfect opportunity to regain the lead as the series now shifts back to the Bell Centre.
Given that both games required extra time, it is safe to say that the series has been tightly contested, although there are some numbers worth noting as the Habs prepare to host the Bolts.
In this article, we will discuss the game of forward lines, while also keeping in mind that we are working with very limited sample sizes at 5v5.
canadiens vs lightning team stats
The first thing we have to acknowledge is that the numbers behind the first two games are odd. Well, maybe "odd" isn't the right word, but they're clearly based on limited data.
Such is life when analyzing in the playoffs.
With this in mind, built-in numbers were developed to get a better idea of how a team—or individual—is performing in this scenario: limited data.
As always, we will discuss four different statistics. The first is Corsi For (CF%), which I often label as 'shot share' because it's so descriptive, but in this case I've used the abbreviated version for ease of viewing. We'll also discuss Montreal's share of high-danger scoring chances (HDCF%), their expected goal share (xGF%), and actual goal share (GF%) at 5v5.
Through two games, the Lightning have outscored the Habs by a considerable margin, a fact that will be reflected when evaluating the forward lines. The Canadians have managed to control only 39.7% of the shots (66-100), which can only be called worrying.
The Habs have also only managed to score two goals at 5v5, both of which were provided by fourth-line forward Josh Anderson. Overall, the Lightning haven't lit the lamp as well at 5v5, but they have scored twice as many goals as the Habs.
As far as expected goals go, they represent a very encouraging split for Montreal. The Canadians have gained a considerable advantage and have controlled approximately 54% of the expected targets.
One reason behind the discrepancy in expected goals and shot share is that the Canadiens have done an excellent job of controlling high-danger chances, shooting 72% (18-7). This isn't just a huge positive, it's a complete reversal of Montreal's fortunes with high-quality scoring opportunities. Traditionally, the Habs struggle to generate many quality scoring chances regardless of their opponents.
Canadiens forward lines at 5v5
The biggest issue facing the Habs is clearly their lack of goals at 5v5. If the Canadiens are to have success in this series, the first line in particular needs to start scoring at 5v5.
You could argue that the second and third lines also need to provide some semblance of offense, but the onus is on the team's best forward to move the ball at 5v5. Fortunately, they are doing a good job at controlling the chances, but the volume is not enough to compensate for their lack of shooting luck.
For the most part, whenever head coach Martin St-Louis puts the first line on the ice, John Cooper immediately counters with a Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Jake Guentzel line, which has outscored the Habs 3-0 at 5v5.
Additionally, only one line has managed to control 50% of the shots, which is another team-wide concern. This is reduced by the overall share of high-quality scoring chances, which is reflected in expected goals.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
Unfortunately for the Habs, shot quantity is very important when it comes to winning a series. Although they have the edge in quality, a greater volume of shots will be necessary if they want to start scoring more goals at 5v5.
If the Canadiens can manage to put a few more pucks on net, the rest of the numbers suggest they will hold a significant advantage in the remaining games of the series, perhaps enough to pick up a win against a more experienced opponent.
To do that, they'll have to rely on their first line to resume the dominance they showed on a nightly basis during the regular season, while also getting a little help from St. Louis, who will now have their last change as the series returns to the Bell Center.
Keeping Tampa Bay's top line devoid of their own top players is probably the best path to success.
All Montreal Canadiens stats are 5v5 via Natural Stat Trick.
