The Montreal Canadiens (2-1) will host the Tampa Bay Lightning (1-2) in Game 4 on Sunday, with puck drop scheduled for 7 p.m. ET.
The Habs emerged with a 3-2 overtime win on Friday, marking the third consecutive game in which these teams required extra time to decide a winner.
On the surface, this may seem like a close battle, but once we look at the numbers a bit, it becomes clear that the Canadiens have gained a significant advantage in a very important category: high-danger scoring chances.
In fact, before Sunday's game, the Canadiens had controlled 75% of quality scoring opportunities, the best result of any playoff team through three games. This doesn't mean they are dominating the Lightning, but it is an important development for the Habs, as they typically struggle when it comes to controlling the best opportunities over a period, let alone an entire series.
For fun, here are the HDCF% of the various teams in the playoffs after three games. It reflects the share of high-danger scoring chances a team generates.
#GoHabsGo Leading the league by a huge margin with 75%. https://t.co/vtaVVh8y3G pic.twitter.com/1XZdiqMTul
- Montreal Hockey Now (@MTLhockeynow) 25 April 2026
You could argue that Tampa Bay's obsession with slick hockey is backfiring, as the Canadiens have not only created four times as many high-danger scoring chances, but they've also been bolting in the process, with defenseman Arbor Zekaj and forward Josh Anderson leading the physical charge.
Czekaj has also put up some of the best numbers among all NHL defensemen in the playoffs, forming a very solid third pairing with Jaden Struble.
If the Lightning continue to focus on extracurriculars, the Habs will have a great chance to take the series by establishing a 3-1 lead with a win on Sunday. However, if Tampa Bay begins playing regular hockey, it will make matters more complicated for the Canadiens.
Possible Lineup Changes
Neither Victor Hedman nor Charles-Edouard D'Estes are expected to be available for the Lightning, and although it's likely we'll see Canadiens defenseman Noah Dobson back in uniform in the relatively near future, he will not play against the Lightning on Sunday.
We'll know more about what's next for Noah Dobson within 48 hours. @CanadiensMTL @TVASports
- Renaud Lavoie (@RLavoieTVA) 26 April 2026
Any lineup changes will be confirmed once the teams take the ice for pregame warm-ups, as both coaches are keeping their cards pretty close to their chests at this point in the postseason.
Montreal Canadiens Projected Lineup
Cole Coffield - Nick Suzuki - Juraj Slafkowski
Alex Newhook - Oliver Kapanen - Ivan Demidov
Zachary Bolduc - Kirby Dach - Alexandre Texier
Jake Evans - Philip Danault - Josh Anderson
Mike Matheson - Alexander Carrier
Caden Guhle - Lane Hutson
Jaden Struble - Arbor Zekaj
jacob dobbs
Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lineup
Gage Goncalves - Brayden Point - Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hegel - Anthony Cirelli - Jake Guentzel
Zemgus Girgenson - Yanni Gourde - Nick Paul
Corey Perry - Dominic James - Scott Sabourin
JJ Moser - Darren Raddish
Ryan McDonagh - Eric Cernak
Declan Carlyle - Emil Lilliberg
Andrei Vasilevsky
How to watch Hubs Vs. bolt
Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday, April 26, 2026, will be broadcast on CBC, Sportsnet and TVA Sports. A quick recap with highlights will be available on SportsNote once the final whistle blows.
Additional NHL Playoff Analysis
