The Memphis Grizzlies have a track record of finding diamonds in the second round. One of his latest discoveries is increasingly making the case that his value far exceeds current wages. With an All-Rookie year on his resume and another productive season underway, Jaylen Wells should consider pushing for a contract extension worth approximately $15 million annually this summer.
Selected with the 39th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, Wells has outperformed his draft slot in ways that typically command top dollar on the open market. The Grizzlies aren't going to let Wells hit free agency any time soon. According to Tuomas Isalo, EVP Zach Kleiman knows the value of the early caliber two-way wing and why Wells is the best fit for Beale Street.
"Jaylen is extremely solid. (Wells) fits into a variety of lineups because he doesn't need the ball to have a positive impact on the game," Isalo explained. "He's hitting open shots and he's also improved his mid-range scoring, which is higher efficiency for him. Defensively, he gets into different matchups. He's always been an on-ball specialist for us. Now, for the second year, his off-ball defense, his awareness, his disruptions have really gotten better."
That last sentence is statistical logic in simple language. Wells is producing 12.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.8 three-pointers and 0.9 steals in 26.7 minutes per game in his sophomore season. Those are cool numbers. There were even louder noises when Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. were out. Wells averaged 14.3 points, 3.8 boards and 2.0 assists while shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc in December. That three-point accuracy is up to 45.3% in February.
Wells has had three 20-point games in a five-game span and posted four steal games twice. After the NBA All-Star break he went 10-13 from the field for 25 points against the Miami Heat. It's not just the scoring, but the efficiency that separates this race from the usual production. Committing almost one turnover per game despite the huge increase in usage rate (20.8) is acceptable in this part of the process. Thankfully for the Grizzlies, the 10-year rolling comparison of the CBA cap and second-round picks provides a great framework for a team-friendly deal.
Jaylen Wells, Grizzlies on the clock
Herb Jones, the 35th pick in 2021 by New Orleans, signed a four-year, $54 million extension ($13.5 million AAV) after two seasons of averaging 10 points and strong defense. Andrew Nembhard, selected 31st overall in 2022 by Indiana, signed a three-year, $59 million ($19.7 million AAV) deal after a sophomore year of 9.5 points and 4.5 assists. Ayo Dosunmu, the 38th pick in 2021 by Chicago, earned a three-year, $21 million ($7 million AAV) contract after similar 3-and-D production.
Isaiah Joe (49th, 2020) signed a three-year, $30 million ($10 million AAV) deal with Oklahoma City; Aaron Wiggins (55th, 2021) agreed to a five-year, $47 million ($9.4 million AAV) extension. Wales should seek a number near the top end of that scale. If his February surge (51.6% FG, 44.9% 3PT) continues into the offseason, the $15 million target may prove conservative.
For the Grizzlies, Wells' extension now aligns with building cost-controlled talent amid salary cap constraints. This is a contract that will have immediate first-round value. For Wells, pushing for a $15 million AAV could take advantage of his speed before injuries or roster changes alter his leverage. Unrestricted free agency is still a long way off, and the NBA would be a big gamble for such a small return under the CBA's projected average player salary structure.
However, there is no telling where the organization will be a year from now, nor can anyone assure that the 22-year-old (birthday in August) has any significant role in it. Therefore, first lock the middle money. Negotiate player options by Labor Day. Either way, this must be done before training camp opens. There must be some protection in place to cover the prime years before Wales are at risk of another sudden injury.
