There has been a goalie controversy in the Montreal Canadiens crease for most of the season. It seems that some fans have lost faith in Samuel Montembeault, and there are certain arguments that support a change.
Jacob Dobbes outmatched him to the extent that the former Team Canada member was sent down to the AHL for a conditioning stint in the 4 Nations Face-Off Tournament, leading to highly anticipated prospect Jacob Fowler being called up for a total of ten games. Later, on December 27 to be exact, the Quebec-native was recalled, and as a result, Fowler was returned to the Laval Rocket.
Since returning with the Canadiens, Montembeault has continued to divide opinions as he has compiled a 5–2–2 record in nine games played. Additionally, Dobbes has not lost once in regular time in his eight contests with the Habs since his goaltending counterpart returned to Montreal.
But is the difference in their performances really as big as the win column suggests?
Let's take a look at the facts.
Who deserves credit for recent success?
Since December 27, the Montreal Canadiens have been one of the best teams in the league in points scored (6th in points) from 22 games played (6th in points), as well as goals scored (4th in GF/60).
What's flying under the radar a bit is the fact that they've lagged far behind in terms of generating expected goals (22nd in xGF%). His defense has been particularly suspect (28th in xGA/60), a worrying situation for everyone involved.
Therefore, their goaltenders are often forced to bail them out, ranking 7th in GSAX/60.
And, surprisingly, Montembelt did it even more than Dobbes.
As seen in the table, since December 27 Montembeault has saved 0.9 goals above expectation per 60 minutes, thus bringing the most positive value out of the three Canadian goaltenders. Dobbes has also performed well, saving 0.64 goals per hour above expectation. Both goalkeepers have similar high-danger save percentage and low-danger save percentage, and rank slightly above average in those statistics.
In terms of consistency, Dobbes has had the upper hand, as he has made five quality starts in his eight matches, while Montebault has saved more goals than expected in four of his eight matches. Both goalkeepers have made two steals for their teams, meaning they have saved more goals than the goal difference between the teams involved in the match.
Thus, statistically it seems that as of late, both Dobbes and Montebault have not only been very important to their team's success but are also having very similar performances.
So, why has Dobbes won seven of his eight matches and Montebault has won "only" five of them?
context is important
When we look at the Canadiens' underlying numbers with different goaltenders since December 27, we notice a few things.
First, Jacob Fowler struggled at times when he was in net, but the Canadiens also had difficulty providing run support. In those 5 games Fowler started he scored over 1.5 fewer goals per hour than expected, while controlling 61.8% of the expected goals. Poor finishing and below average goaltending resulted in the Canadiens only getting 3 points from those 5 games.
Secondly, the Canadiens have handled expected goals very evenly regardless of whether Montembeault or Dobbes has been in net. However, Dobbes has enjoyed a goal share of 62.5%, while Montembelt is getting a goal share of 54.2% – quite good in itself – despite saving more goals than expected than Dobbes.
This could be explained by the fact that the Canadiens were better able to finish their chances on net with Dobbes than they were with Montembeault. The Canadiens have scored more goals than expected anyway, but with Dobbs, the Canadiens have scored goals Ten Many times more than expected compared to Montembeault.
This is a distinction that cannot be attributed to any goaltender, and it is also something that should be expected to be achieved again in the coming games.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
While some rumors have linked Stanley Cup-winning veteran goaltenders such as Sergei Bobrovsky and Jordan Binnington to the Canadiens, the way the Canadiens goaltenders have been performing recently, it does not seem necessary.
Goaltending is something that is consistently inconsistent, and judging by their performance this year, both Binnington and Bobrovsky will be taking as much of a gamble as the current goaltender.
But the question still stands: who should be the one to start?
Thinking about this season's performance, the answer is Dobbs. But as Montembeault seems to be quietly getting there, and given the very good results of the past, it seems more likely that he will still get his fair share of starts, and the 1A-1B situation will continue.
The Montreal Canadiens just have to hope that the goaltending remains good enough, and while they're at it, they focus on finding ways to fix their special teams and defensive problems when the trade deadline approaches.
All Montreal Canadiens stats are 5v5, via Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise noted.
