The Montreal Canadiens are a little ahead of schedule when it comes to long-term rebuilding plans. All things considered, the mere fact that they are in the playoff race, just a few years removed from wholesale changes, is rather impressive.
Some teams take a decade or more to right the ship, while the Canadiens actually managed to reach the playoffs last season.
And while this was an encouraging development, it also raised the bar considerably. Canadian fans are not only hopeful that the team will qualify for the playoffs this year, but they are also hungry for post-season success.
But that's putting the cart before the horse.
As it stands, the Habs will have to make sure they get the first invitation to the springtime dance, and to do that, they'll have to focus on their biggest area of weakness.
Quality Scoring Possibilities
The biggest problem the Canadiens have faced since the hiring of head coach Martin Saint-Louis has been their poor share of high-danger scoring opportunities.
The team ranks 16th in 5v5 shots at 57.6 per 60 minutes of ice time. It's far from ideal, but at least, they're no longer in the basement of the NHL, as they were last season.
However, when it comes to allowing high-danger chances, they are 24th in the league with 12.3 per 60. Not every team below them is in danger of missing the playoffs, but most of them would be described as organizations that are headed toward, or engaged in, a rebuild.
The issue is further complicated by Montreal's inability to generate a series of high-danger chances to balance out its defensive problems. The Habs rank 29th in the league when it comes to creating quality scoring chances, with just 10.5 per 60.
This means the Canadiens have the fifth-worst share of high-end scoring opportunities in the league, with only 46.13%. The only teams with worse results are the Vancouver Canucks (46.12%), New York Islanders (44.6%), Seattle Kraken (42.36%), and Chicago Blackhawks (41.97%).
For the record, the top three clubs with high threat probability are the Carolina Hurricanes (55.43%), the Vegas Golden Knights (55.02%), and the Colorado Avalanche (54.96%), all teams considered threats to capture the Stanley Cup this season.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
Sure, better goaltending can mask some of these issues, but in the long run, if the Canadiens hope to one day become legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, they will need to do a much better job of controlling the best scoring opportunities.
To put a fine point on the importance of this particular issue, the Golden Knights have had worse goals against than Montreal this year, and when it comes to team-wide save percentage, the Hurricanes are essentially tied with the Habs, closer to the 89.9% range.
It's very easy to blame the netminders, but the truth is that the Habs make life very difficult for their goaltenders due to their poor share of high-danger scoring opportunities.
All Montreal Canadiens stats are 5v5, via Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise noted.
