The 2025-26 season isn't even remotely going as planned for the Golden State Warriors. After the 2025 NBA Playoffs gave the franchise hope that if they could get everyone healthy in time for the playoffs, they could compete with the best, the Warriors' injury problems have worsened this season.
Jimmy Butler tore his ACL, sending Stephen Curry's co-star to recover – largely destroying the Warriors' title hopes. They traded for Kristaps Porzingis, who has been missing regular time due to illness. Moses Moody has suffered a nasty knee injury which is sure to keep him out for a while. And now, even Curry is battling persistent knee troubles, which has cast such a huge cloud of uncertainty over the team.
Still, as the old saying goes, it's not over until it's over. The Warriors are still in the postseason picture, and unless they are eliminated, there is a chance they can make things difficult for at least the San Antonio Spurs or the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs.
At this point, qualifying for the playoffs in any capacity is already a huge win. This season is long lost for the Dubs, and there is no way they can force Curry to return before his body is ready.
That said, this is the Warriors' dream seeding and matchup scenario heading into the 2026 NBA Playoffs.
Warriors dream scenario: Earn the eighth seed, Stephen Curry gets healthy
At the time of writing, the Warriors have a record of 34–38, as their difficult month of March (they went 3–9 in the calendar month) has caused their decline in the Western Conference standings. They find life extremely difficult without Curry, as they don't have enough fire and star power to survive in a loaded conference without their best player, making life easier for the rest of the roster.
Now, discussing the shortcomings of the roster is not the subject of this article. But to summarize, the Warriors have a roster full of role players and support players that can't increase their production as much when their best player is gone, leading to a lot of inconsistencies from game to game.
And Curry's return doesn't seem imminent; While the Warriors are insisting he is on track with his recovery, he was not able to participate in 5-on-5 scrimmages over the weekend, while the team initially hoped he would. This knee injury may be more serious than the Dubs have indicated, although that shouldn't be a surprise considering Curry is 38 years old.
But unless Curry is sidelined for the rest of the season, the Warriors hope they can keep things competitive in the play-in tournament picture. If Curry is ultimately ruled out of the play-in tournament game, it is safe to say that the Dubs will not be favored in any way in any games against other potential play-in teams in the Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers.
However, if Curry returns, it changes the equation drastically in the Warriors' favor. Curry is a big-game player who has gone through every battle imaginable during his NBA career, and there is no way he should be fazed in a game. There will be concerns about his form when he returns from injury, but he has performed brilliantly in the past after returning from a long absence.
Curry will get the Warriors offense humming once again; Without running around the court to create space, the Dubs' offense becomes stagnant and inefficient and overly reliant on making difficult shots. With Curry's return, his teammates have reduced responsibilities, and they can move back into more comfortable supporting roles, restoring balance to the team.
If Curry comes back for the Warriors in the next week or so, it's even better for the Warriors. This gives them a better chance of avoiding the dreaded 9/10 play-in tournament games. The Dubs' play-in history isn't very encouraging, so it's important to give themselves a better chance of reaching the playoffs by giving them two chances to qualify instead of just one.
The Dubs are just two games behind the Clippers for eighth place in the conference, and that's a deficit they can make up with 10 games remaining in the season.
The game against the Suns is very winnable at the moment; Injury problems have also hit the Suns badly, with Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams, who were key players for the team, currently on the mend. The Suns have been playing below .500 basketball in the month of March, and the Warriors can certainly give them a run for their money – especially with Curry back.
The blueprint for the Warriors to make the playoffs in this dream scenario is clear: They must earn the eighth seed (very possible with four games remaining against the Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards and Sacramento Kings, and a key matchup against the Clippers), defeat the Suns, and have a tough contest against the inexperienced San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs.
Now, the Warriors will be heavy underdogs in the playoff series against the Spurs. But Golden State is currently winning the season series against San Antonio (2-1). The caveat is that the Dubs had won these two wins before Butler's season-ending injury. Still, this suggests he may remain with the Spurs in some capacity.
The potential playoff series against the Spurs also feels like a passing of the torch moment. As anyone may remember, a young, improved Warriors team led by Curry faced the Spurs in the 2013 NBA Playoffs and were defeated in a six-game first round playoff series.
Now, it's the turn of the young, rising Spurs to face a more experienced team that is at the end of its competitive phase – which could be a fitting bookend to the true end of this Warriors dynasty.
