When NASCAR announced the return of The Chase for the 2026 season, many drivers and fans were overjoyed to see the old win-and-playoff format gone for good. Now seven races into the season, some drivers may already be missing the old ways of playoff-clinching scenarios.
After Sunday's Cook Out 400 we are more than a quarter of the way through the Cup Series regular season. With the Cup Series having a week off, it's worth taking a look at some of the marquee drivers who are on the NASCAR Chase bubble right now.
Josh Berry: 55 points behind
Josh Berry led Wood Brothers Racing to the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs last season with his victory in the Pennzoil 400 on March 16. More than a year later, the No. 21 team faces even longer odds joining the 16-driver, 10-race battle. The good news for Berry is that he had a season-best finish of 10th at Martinsville, scoring 36 points. He has earned 56 points in the last two races and has moved up double digits on the points leaderboard. However, the fact that he scored only 23 points over the four-race span from Atlanta to Las Vegas eliminated his margin for error in advancing. Some of his teammates this season have already performed on better teams and in races with better equipment, making it extremely unlikely for Berry to make the playoffs.
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Kyle Busch: 48 points behind
Based on how the No. 8 car has performed over the seven races, and indeed the entire Richard Childress Racing team, even a win-and-in format will not get Kyle Busch into The Chase. It is the first time in his Cup Series career that Busch has gone without a top-10 finish in the first seven races, and his frustration with the team is evident in interviews. We have not seen any evidence from RCR or the No. 8 car to believe that Busch will not go three consecutive seasons without a Cup win.
RELATED: Kyle Busch winless streak, what's happened since last win
Chase Briscoe: 36 points behind
In his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing driving the No. 19 car, Chase Briscoe earned a championship No. 4 finish and won three races with 15 top-five finishes. Although he was certainly seen as a championship contender coming into this year, it seems safe to rule Brisco out for it before the calendar flips to April. It's not necessarily his fault. Finishes at Daytona (36th), COTA (37th), and Phoenix (37th) were mainly due to debris around him or problems with the car. Why it doesn't matter in The Chase, not when you score a total of 4 points in those three races. Now after consecutive finishes outside the top-10, we are confident in saying that Briscoe will not finish in the top-8 in points in the regular season, and that means he has no real title hopes.
Connected: NASCAR Standings Today, Points Leader After Martinsville
Ross Chastain: 31 points behind
With better equipment, Ross Chastain could be a championship contender. The work he's been doing with the No. 1 car this season for Trackhouse Racing could keep him out of The Chase altogether. This generally appears to be a trackhouse issue, as Connor Zylisch has performed like Cody Ware on the oval this season. In the past, Chastain would make up for the team's shortcomings by winning. That's not an option, and while we'd still predict him to be one of the 16 drivers in The Chase, it's no longer the certainty that many expected just a few months ago.
Austin Cindric: 18 points behind
Austin Cindric's arrow is pointing up after these past two weeks. The fact that he is still 18 points behind Daniel Suarez for 16th and last place after scoring 78 points in the last two races speaks volumes about the huge hole he has dug through the first four races of the season. With the points gap narrowing, Cindric has potentially given himself a little margin for error while still having a chance to clinch one of the final two spots in The Chase.
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