Well friends, it's official: the Ottawa Senators are headed to the playoffs! On January 24, they finished in last place in the Atlantic Division and second in the Eastern Conference. At the time, the Detroit Red Wings led the Atlantic and were tied for most points in the East. There was a difference of 16 points between the two teams.
Now, with the Sens up by five points on the Wings, Detroit is officially out of the playoffs for the 10th consecutive season. As much as this story is about the Senators' dominance over the last two and a half months, the Red Wings' downfall deserves to be discussed as much. Let's get into the details.
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Ottawa Senators by the numbers
The Senators' 4–1 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on January 24 left them in sole possession of 15th place in the Eastern Conference. That's when his season changed. have a look:
- first 51 games: 23-21-7, 3.22 goals/game, 3.39 goals against/game, 22.9 PP%, 71.8 PK%
- last 29 games: 20-6-3, 3.62 goals/game, 2.31 goals against/game, 24.4 PP%, 83.6 PK%
Let's break down these numbers among all the NHL teams:
- first 51 games: 25th in points %, 12th in goals/game, 28th in goals against/game, 10th in PP%, 31st in PK%.
- last 29 games:T-1st in points %, 4th in goals/game, 1st in goals against/game, 10th in PP%, 5th in PK%.
Obviously, it was a change of the entire team. Sure, his goalscoring and power play were solid in the first 51 games, but those numbers have reached even greater heights since then. Goal prevention is where the Senators have improved even more dramatically. A lot of it has to do with their goal setting. To keep an eye:
- first 51 games: .865 Team SV% (32nd in the NHL)
- last 29 games: .900 Team SV% (7th in the NHL)
The .865 SV% paced the Senators for the lowest team SV% in the NHL since the 1993–94 Ottawa Senators. Keep in mind, that was the Senators' second year of existence. Individually, Linus Ullmark went from .881 SV% to .904 SV%. They have 14 wins since returning from their leave of absence on January 31 for the league lead.
Detroit Red Wings by the numbers
Now for the fall part of the equation. The Red Wings defeated the Winnipeg Jets 5–1 on January 24 to tie the Carolina Hurricanes for most points in the East. Sure, the Red Wings played an extra game, but they were undoubtedly in a great spot to end their long playoff drought. Well, so much for that! Let's take a look at the figures:
- first 53 games: 32-16-5, 3.11 goals/game, 2.96 goals against/game, 24.7 PP%, 79.3 PK%
- last 27 games: 9-14-4, 2.59 goals/game, 3.15 goals against/game, 19.7 PP%, 73.5 PK%
And now for a league-wide comparison of those numbers:
- first 53 games: 4th in points %, 17th in goals/game, 13th in goals against/game, 6th in PP%, 18th in PK%.
- last 27 games: 28th in points %, 30th in goals/game, 22nd in goals against/game, 22nd in PP%, 27th in PK%.
This is the exact opposite of the senators. They lagged behind in virtually every category. Clearly they relied too heavily on their power play, which held back just like every other part of their game. The Red Wings didn't just become a mediocre team, they became one of the worst teams in the NHL. Keep in mind, they were buyers on deadline. Here's what their deadline acquisition did for them:
- Justin Faulk: 15 games, 4 goals, 6 points, -3, 20:16 time on ice/game
- david perron: 14 games, 2 goals, 2 points, -9, 13:42 ice time/game
The Senators were the ones who traded Perón to the Red Wings. He was replaced by Warren Foegele, who scored 5 goals and 7 points in 19 games with Ottawa. It certainly wasn't just Faulk and Perron who caused Detroit's decline. For example, Lucas Raymond had a dramatic fall. He scored 58 points in his first 51 games, but has scored only 18 points in his last 27 games.
defining game
Let's go back to March 24. The Senators were in Detroit to face a Red Wings team that was one point ahead of them. These were the problems:
- They were playing for the second straight night, having played against the Rangers in New York the night before.
- They were without Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen on defense.
- The Red Wings had won all three meetings up to that point in the season.
Any back-to-back is tough, but playing both games on the road in two different cities, as well as missing both Chabot and Sanderson, made this feel like a scheduled defeat for the Senators. Additionally, depth D-men Dennis Gilbert and Lassie Thomson were out, forcing the Sens to call up forwards Jorian Donovan and Carter Yakemchuk to play their first career games.
outcome? The Senators' incredible 3–2 win moved them ahead of the Red Wings in the standings for the first time since December 5. The Senators never let the Red Wings pass after that. The Red Wings suffered several tough losses in a row to keep them out of the playoffs, but considering the circumstances, this was the worst.
final thoughts
There came a time when it felt like none of the teams fighting for the last few playoff spots in the East were going to lose completely. Of course, the Red Wings were the exception. They lost 8 of their last 11 and 18 of their last 27 and found themselves out of the playoff picture.
Meanwhile, the senators never gave up. They played 20 games without Brady Tkachuk early in the season. He endured nearly 50 games of terrible goaltending. Linus Ullmark took a partial leave of absence during the year. Jake Sanderson missed 13 games. After the Olympic break, they used 12 defensemen. In the end, their resilience has been rewarded with a second consecutive trip to the playoffs.
These two teams have shown a lot of disdain for each other over the past few years as they have tried to work their way back to contender status. Obviously, senators have the upper hand. Meanwhile, the Red Wings must figure out what to do next after a terrible collapse that saw them miss the playoffs once again.
