I'm not here to tell you that Tyree Wilson went seventh overall after being drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders. she has not. Through three years, a 57.6 PFF grade, and a pass-rush win rate that ranks 106th out of 126 edge rushers from 2023. These numbers don't lie.
But I'm also not ready to put a bust label on him and move on. not yet.
Here's the thing about Wilson that gets lost in the frustration: The Raiders are asking him to do something he was never meant to do. They have drafted him as a traditional 4-3 defensive end, a wide-9 speed rusher who wins off the edge with bends and athleticism. That's not his game. It never was.
Wilson is 6 feet 6 inches, 263 pounds. He is a power player. Length and leverage are his tools, not ankle flexibility and cornerback speed. And for three years, three different coaching staffs have tried to fit that square peg into a round hole.
Rob Leonard's 3-4 could eventually change that.
No one is talking about this plan
When Clint Kubiak announced at the combine that the Raiders were shifting to a 3-4 base under Leonard, much of the conversation focused on Maxx Crosby. Exactly - Crosby is the best player on defense. But the more interesting subplot is what this means for Tyree Wilson.
In Leonard's system, Wilson projects as a 4-technique or 5-technique. This means he is hitting the inside with the tackle's shoulder, using his length to control the gap and using his strength to collapse the pocket from the inside. That's a completely different question than what he's doing.
Think about it. Wilson's struggles came when he was asked to win in space, turning the corner against NFL tackles who could mirror his running. Inside? The space shrinks. The game slows down. His height becomes an advantage rather than something he tries to compensate for.
Leonard coached Wilson as D-line coach the past two seasons. He knows exactly what Wilson can and can't do. The change in plans is not accidental.
Tyree Wilson's numbers behind the disappointment
Wilson's 2025 wasn't a complete disaster. He recorded career highs in tackles (35) and tackles for loss (8). He forced two to falter. He generated 35 pressures.
But the termination rate killed him. Wilson had 10 tackles missed, which was also a career high. 60.4 pass-rush grade which ranks 77th among qualified edge defenders. There were glimpses, but there was no stability.
The season finale against Kansas City provided a glimpse of what could be. Two sacks, two forced fumbles, eight pressures, 31.2% win rate. Granted, he was going against a backup tackle. But you can only beat who is in front of you and Wilson dominated that fight as he rarely has in his career.
The question is whether it was a preview or an external one.
The 5-year option has almost certainly expired
The Raiders have until May 1 to make a decision on Wilson's 5th-year option. It will cost approximately $13 million.
They are not picking it up. I would be stunned if they did.
Jon Spytek did not draft Wilson. He has no emotional investment in the pickup. And paying $13 million for a player who hasn't earned a 60 PFF grade in three seasons is not consistent with how this front office operates. SpyTech wants value. Wilson, at that price, right.
That doesn't mean Wilson is done in Las Vegas. This means that 2026 is truly the year to prove it. He'll play out the final season of his rookie deal at around $8 million, and if he breaks out, he'll either be extended or hit free agency with leverage. If he doesn't, it's someone else's reclamation project.
ration gary blueprint
Here's the optimistic case. Rashaan Gary was a top-15 pick for the Packers, who looked bad during his first two seasons. Then Year 3 hit, he found his role, and through October 2023, he signed a four-year, $96 million extension.
The physical profiles are similar. Both are long, powerful and took time to translate college dominance into NFL production. The difference is that Green Bay stuck with Gary long enough to let him click.
Wilson is his third head coach in three years. That kind of instability does not help development. Leonard represents his first real continuity – a coach who has been in the building, who knows his strengths and weaknesses, and who is now installing a scheme that theoretically fits him better.
He is nothing.
what to watch with tyree wilson
The first phase of the offseason program is underway. Wilson is going to get his first real reps in Leonard's system over the next few months. By training camp, we should get a feel for whether the 4i/5-technique role really unlocks something or whether the physical tools don't translate at the NFL level.
I am not predicting a breakout. Wilson hasn't earned that optimism. But I am also not writing him off.
The Raiders finally have a scheme that fits his skill set, a coordinator who knows his game inside and out and a front office that will give him another year to figure it out. If it doesn't happen in 2026, it's not happening.
But what if this happens? This defense suddenly has a real second threat facing Crosby. And that changes everything.
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