The Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway this weekend for its 11th points race of the season. We're continuing our weekly NASCAR predictions once again, making our first correct pick for the winning driver of 2026.
Let's take a look at our Worth 400 predictions. We'll start with the poll winner and work our way through the stages before predicting who will walk to victory.
Kyle Larson earns pole at Texas
Kyle Larson and the No. 5 team have performed well in qualifying this season, coming to Texas with the second-highest average starting position (7.7) in the Cup Series. However, they have failed to win a single pole in the points race this year. What better time to break that cold streak than at a track where Larson has won pole three times since 2021? As we learned on DBC, there will be a waxing crescent moon this week, so Larson should be able to take advantage in qualifying.
READ MORE: NASCAR Power Rankings before Texas
Austin Cindric wins Stage 1
In the last two trips to Texas Motor Speedway, Austin Cindric and the No. 2 team have had good speed. He finished third in the Wurth 400 and won Stage 1 last year, and last year he posted the second-best average lap time (29.2 seconds). We're projecting Cindric to put up one of the five best lap times on Saturday and then carry it to the Stage 1 victory.
RELATED: NASCAR weekend schedule at Texas Motor Speedway
christopher bell takes stage 2
Christopher Bell and the No. 20 team need a strong points day at the Wurth 400 this weekend. Bell has finished 17th or worse in the last three races and has not scored 30 points in his last five visits to the track. Considering the widespread belief that true Cup Series championship contenders must finish in the top five in points at the end of the regular season, Bell (ninth place) has some real ground to make up. We're predicting it will come down to Sunday, with the No. 20 winning Stage 2 (10 points) and finishing in the top five in points that day.
Eric Jones finished in the top 10 in most points scored on the season
Erik Jones had a legitimate chance at a top-five finish before finishing 23rd at Talladega. This was his third consecutive 23rd position. Change is coming to the Wurth 400 this weekend. Jones has three top-10 finishes at Texas since May 2021 and he flourished at this track years ago with Joe Gibbs Racing. After scoring a combined 42 points in the last three races, Jones is looking to score more than 38 points on Sunday.
Chase Briscoe wins the Wurth 400
Chase Briscoe finished 27th at the Wurth 400 in his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing last year due to a suspension issue. Before that, he had three top-five finishes here with SHR and the No. 19 team has its own history of excellence in Texas. There have been plenty of downs for Briscoe and JGR in 2026, but the No. 19 has always had momentum. This would be seen once again on Sunday, with Briscoe marching to victory.
