The Max Verstappen will-not-be saga got fresh fuel this week, and this time it's coming from someone who has been inside the paddock long enough to read between the lines.
The four-time world champion has Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes on his shortlist if he triggers a performance-based exit clause buried in his Red Bull contract, former Haas team principal Guenther Steiner told Casino.org. With Red Bull fourth in the constructors' standings and Verstappen having scored all but four of the team's 30 points, the conversation is no longer theoretical.
"In my opinion, Max can only go to 3 teams: Ferrari, McLaren, or Mercedes," said Steiner. "But is there anything available at the moment? Probably not, but will they make something available for Max Verstappen? That's the big question."
Max Verstappen Where there is smoke, there is fire
That's why it's not just empty frog chatter. Verstappen is technically contracted to Red Bull until 2028, but the deal reportedly includes a performance-based exit clause. Most relevant: If Max is not in the top two in the drivers' list during the summer break, the door opens for an early departure at the end of the season.
Right now, that door is wide open. Red Bull are fourth in the Constructors' Championship with just 30 points after four rounds. Verstappen himself is seventh in the drivers' standings, and has scored all but four of the team's points. The car is a problem. The trajectory is worse.
Steiner pointed to recent history as a template for how this might change. Ferrari sidelined Carlos Sainz to make room for Lewis Hamilton. Top teams free up seats for generational talent. They just do.
"Just look back at when Ferrari let Carlos go, who was doing a good job, because the goat came Lewis Hamilton," said Steiner. "So, I think there needs to be something like that, but that's what Max will be looking for."
Each team in the shortlist has its own complexities. Mercedes have been linked to Verstappen for years through their relationship with Toto Wolff, although that discussion has cooled recently, partly because Kimi Antonelli currently leads the championship and George Russell is going nowhere. Ferrari already have Hamilton and Charles Leclerc under contract. McLaren has defending champion Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, the two drivers that most American fans will name first if you ask them who is actually winning races at the moment.
But in the case of McLaren there is a dilemma worth noting. GP Lambias, Verstappen's long-time race engineer and the calmest voice he has ever heard in his ear, is leaving as chief racing officer at Woking until 2028. It's no coincidence that anyone in the paddock thinks it's a coincidence.
"He'll look at these three teams and talk to them," Steiner said, "but I don't think there's any team that is focused on him."
Translation: Max is shopping. The only question left is whether anyone is actually ready to buy. With the summer holidays still a few months away, expect the noise over Verstappen's future to grow before it subsides. Red Bull's recovery deadline is the real deadline, and right now, they are way off track.
