At the start of the 2025–26 NBA season, it became clear that the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs were on a collision course for a playoff berth. Luckily, the latest rivalry in the NBA will take place in the Western Conference Finals.
While Oklahoma City finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA, it lost four of five games in head-to-head contests against San Antonio. Those competitions also revealed just how much friction there is between Victor Wembanyama and the Thunder, which adds even more intrigue to the series.
With that in mind, let's take a look at our Western Conference Finals predictions.
Game 1: Oklahoma City Thunder 113, San Antonio Spurs 109
Oklahoma City is expected to get wing Jalen Williams back for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, which is an added boost for a team that is already well-rested. Wembanyama and the Spurs have already proven they can go to Paycom Center and win, but the extra time to prepare along with home-court advantage could impact Game 1. We expect this to be a tight game from start to finish, but Wambayama's 30-plus points combined with the 30-plus points from Ajayi Mitchell and Williams will propel Oklahoma City to a Game 1 victory.
Game 2: San Antonio Spurs 117, Oklahoma City Thunder 110
The Spurs will steal one from the Thunder; This is one of our Western Conference Finals predictions we feel the strongest about. Wembanyama has already demonstrated that he can completely neutralize Chet Holmgren, and the Spurs also have the guard depth to match up with Oklahoma City. In Game 2, Wembanyama scored over 35 points with 5 blocks and 2 steals in one of the most impressive two-way performances of the entire NBA playoffs. Additionally, Dylan Harper comes off the bench with 18 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists to help San Antonio tie the series upon returning home.
Game 3: San Antonio Spurs 108, Oklahoma City Thunder 105
In the first Western Conference Finals home game for the franchise since May 22, 2017, we are expecting a noisy atmosphere at Frost Bank Center. This is another rivalry game where we see bad blood spill over in an electric atmosphere between the Spurs and Thunder. While Oklahoma City is generally a team that avoids mistakes, last year's NBA Finals showed that they can experience a few misses and turnovers. Against a well-coached team like San Antonio, who also has the length and defensive versatility to put pressure on Gilgeous-Alexander and close down passing lanes, we think the Spurs come out on top at home. San Antonio takes a 2–1 series lead in the Western Conference Finals, with Wembanyama averaging nearly 30 points, 12 rebounds and 4 blocks per contest.
Game 4: Oklahoma City Thunder 116, San Antonio Spurs 110
In a key game on the road, Oklahoma City's playoff experience keeps them from being on the brink of elimination. Jalen Williams should be over the rust by now since his return, giving the Thunder a bucket-getter who can take over games. With so much defensive pressure on SGA, Williams repeated his standout performance from last year's NBA Finals with over 35 points, including five three-pointers. It's Williams' resurgence and some clutch minutes off the bench that allow the Thunder to even the series by capturing Game 4 in San Antonio.
Game 5: San Antonio Spurs 120, Oklahoma City Thunder 113
We expect this Spurs vs. Thunder showdown in the Western Conference Finals to be a regular thing in the years to come. In our view, a theme of this rivalry will be finding ways for Oklahoma City and San Antonio to pick up wins on the road. That's what we expect in Game 5, this time with De'Aaron Fox leading the way with a double-double. The Spurs had five players (Fox, Wembanyama, Harper, Stephen Cassel, and Keldon Johnson) score double figures, giving San Antonio its second win in the series.
Game 6: Oklahoma City Thunder 114, San Antonio Spurs 104
We're giving San Antonio a chance to wrap up the Western Conference Finals at home in Game 6. It will not be removed. While Gilgeous-Alexander's stellar third quarter performance will effectively put the Spurs away in this one, it's going to be a breakout game from Chet Holmgren (22 points, 11 rebounds and 5 blocks) that proves to be the difference maker early on. Oklahoma City won Game 6, its largest point differential in the entire seven-game series.
Game 7: Oklahoma City Thunder 111, San Antonio Spurs 109
Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals will determine who will be crowned NBA champion this season. This is because both San Antonio and Oklahoma City are a level higher than either team coming from the Eastern Conference. In this winner-take-all game, the Spurs came out of the gate in a hostile environment and trailed by double digits in the second quarter. A few halftime adjustments and a highly motivated Vembanyama are a recipe for a comeback. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein will have no answer when Wembanyama stakes his claim to be the best player in the NBA right now. This makes for a tight game in the final minutes. Once again, Gilgeous-Alexander stepped up to the plate. We're projecting a 40-burger in Game 7 for SGA, including double-digit points in the fourth quarter to help the Thunder win the Western Conference Finals.
