標籤: Astros

The Houston Astros enter MLB games today with the second-worst record in the American League, with a top-10 lineup suppressed by the worst pitching staff in baseball. With this proving to be a disastrous year for Houston, the struggles could force the front office to make roster moves at the MLB trade deadline.

FanSided’s Robert Murray wrote that if the Astros ultimately decide to become sellers this summer, the most likely players to be moved are infielder Isaac Paredes and first baseman Christian Walker.

Houston entered the weekend with an 18-28 record, leaving it 10 games short of .500, but just four games behind the Texas Rangers for the third wild card spot in the American League. The club is also just six games behind the first-place Sacramento Athletics in the AL West, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the club could bounce back this summer and get back into playoff contention.

The question is whether or not the Astros pitching staff can get to a place where this team can compete. Hunter Brown, sidelined with a shoulder problem, is on the 60-day injured list and isn’t expected to return until sometime in June. Meanwhile, Ronel Blanco (elbow) is still only throwing bullpen sessions, and Cristian Javier is early in the throwing schedule and won’t return until the summer.

To put the Astros’ pitching problems into perspective, they have the worst ERA in MLB (5.47) and are the only club in baseball with an ERA over 5. Starting pitching (5.16 ERA, 29th in MLB) has been an issue, but the bullpen (5.81 ERA) has been the biggest culprit.

Luckily for Houston, Walker is helping his trade value significantly this summer. In the second year of a three-year, $60 million contract, his batting average (.235 to .268), OBP (.297 to .342) and OPS (.717 to .848) have skyrocketed compared to last season.

Paredes is making $9.5 million this season, and he has a club option for 2027 worth $13.35 million. The 27-year-old infielder has a .734 OPS with a .257 batting average this season in 34 appearances at third base, six at first and three at second base.

Matt Johnson is the senior NFL and college football editor for Sportsknot. His work including the weekly NFL and college… More about Matt Johnson

The Houston Astros have faced some tough situations recently. After finishing in first place at the beginning of the year, they are now in last place in the American League West with a 10–18 record. Despite a ridiculously good offense, their pitching has repeatedly lost them games.

In fact, their offense has been one of the best (if not the best). Best) in MLB. The club ranked sixth in home runs (35), fifth in batting average (.259), fourth in RBI (136), slugging percentage (.436) and OPS (.782), and third in on-base percentage (.346). It is a historic disappointment for Astros fans that such a good offense has barely managed 10 wins across the board.

But the crown jewel of that Houston offense – the one hope that fans can cling to – has been the performance of Yordan Alvarez. And, oh my god, has it been good.

Picture painted by metrics

Alvarez has had a great start to 2026. The 28-year-old slugger is in bad form, leading MLB in home runs with 11 through 28 games. In fact, Alvarez leads MLB in every important hitting statistic (expect second place in slugging percentage) with a .353/.464/.755 slash line and an earth-shattering 1.219 OPS.

The craziest part? Expected metrics are even better. His xwOBA (.556), xBA (.381) and xSLG (.871) are all in the 100th percentile of MLB hitters. This means Alvarez is performing worse than he should and is still the best offensive player in the league. Nobody can do what he is doing now.

Batting run value is a Statcast metric that specifies the run impact on each pitch, hit or plate appearance based on its outcome. A positive number indicates production above average while a negative number would indicate production below average. This is the total for the entire season.

For context, in 2022 when New York Yankee Aaron Judge broke the American League record for home runs with 62, he had a stellar +90 BRV. Alvarez is on pace to have a +118 BRV.

the ever present question of stability

Like most things in life, baseball is a game that more than anything else asks whether something is sustainable. In most cases, the answer is no. And the same thing is true here also to a great extent. Alvarez probably won’t keep up these ridiculous statistics.

Perhaps.

That being said, if he accomplishes what he’s on pace to do: 224 hits, 64 home runs and 150 RBI. Needless to mention, Alvarez is on pace for 139 walks (both intentional and not). Those are historical numbers. Apart from the fact that Álvarez would hold the American League home run record, no player in all of MLB history has ever had a stat line like this.

You’ll notice I didn’t answer the stability question. The main reason for this is to prevent the dream of being an offensive powerhouse like Alvarez from ending. It would be incredible to see a player lose like that, especially with how young he is. It’s easy to forget that the slugger is only 28 years old.

Whether or not he finishes the season with Houston is another question entirely. He has already been the subject of trade rumors with the San Diego Padres (a club searching for a high-impact bat) and, although the Astros would be crazy to trade him, the club is not looking so attractive. Started the year last in the AL West with a 10–18 record.

Who knows what the future holds for Alvarez? It’s impossible to predict the future — especially in baseball — but the Houston slugger certainly looks formidable to start the 2026 season. No matter how this ends up, Alvarez will be fun to watch.