Thursday afternoon, 4:30 PM Pacific, the Las Vegas Raiders find out who they’re playing and when. The league office has already spoiled the suspense on the degree of difficulty.
It is a cruel word.
Why is the Raiders schedule not doing their rebuild any favors?
According to the NFL’s own math, only six teams fared worse. The Raiders’ opponents scored a combined .529 last season, putting them at the seventh-toughest strength of schedule in the league for 2026. Nine of those opponents played in January. The AFC West gives you Kansas City, Denver and the Chargers twice each, and that’s before the calendar ends with Buffalo, New England, the Rams, Seattle and San Francisco thrown in for good measure.
No one in the national media is hiding what they think will happen next.
Just Blog Baby came out this week with an article arguing that anyone expecting the Silver and Black to crash the playoff party in 2026 will be heartbroken. The site acknowledged that the offseason raised the floor, then quickly pointed out that a high floor doesn’t mean much when the ceiling is Patrick Mahomes’s twice a year.
Warren Sharp’s take on Sharp Football Analysis went down a different path altogether. They abandoned the traditional method of using the previous year’s record and instead built their rankings around Vegas win totals, which factors in roster changes between February and now. Sharp’s model has the Raiders projected at 5.5-wins, meaning bookmakers see an upgrade but no contenders just yet.
RELATED: Raiders rookie minicamp 2026: Fernando Mendoza already looks like a boy
Choose a methodology, choose your pain.
The AFC West is what should keep Raider fans up at night. Las Vegas has not seen a playoff game since the 2021 Wild Card weekend in Cincinnati. Kansas City had a disappointing year and the Chiefs don’t last long, everyone in football knows that by now. Denver won the division outright. The Chargers also moved into the bracket. Six divisional games, each one of them against a team that had played meaningful football on New Year’s Day.
The home slate doesn’t get any easier when you leave the division. Allegiant Stadium will host Buffalo, the Rams and Seattle in addition to the AFC West Gauntlet, which includes six of eight home games against teams expected to finish above .500.
Clint Kubiak is promoting without excuses, and that’s admirable, but the schedule doesn’t care about the messaging. Tyler Linderbaum is real. It’s realistic to buy out Fernando Mendoza for a year for Kirk Cousins to learn. The four defensive backs drafted by the front office are real and they’re probably going to play. All of those things could be true and Las Vegas could still come out of this thing 6-11 depending on who is on the other side most weeks.
The national media have decided that the playoffs are business for 2027. The program begins on Thursday and we find out if there is any reasonable argument to the contrary.
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