With the series tied between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning, it is the perfect opportunity to evaluate some key stats.
As a follow-up to our article discussing the team’s forward line, we will take an in-depth look at the play of the team’s defensive pairings.
Before we move on, it’s important to note that the loss of Noah Dobson cannot be underestimated. On the flip side of the coin, the Lightning are playing without Victor Hedman, which makes it a relatively fair exchange of lost starters, however, considering that Hedman already missed the majority of the regular season, Tampa Bay is used to playing without him.
Playing without Dobson in the lineup, the player who appeared in 80 regular season games has presented a significant challenge for the Habs.
Habs defenseman at 5v5
As noted in the article analyzing the Forward, there has been a significant discrepancy in the underlying numbers after only two games in the series.
This is par for the course when analyzing playoff hockey, but it comes with the caveat that the numbers can quickly change once data from another game is added into the mix.
Despite having a clear edge in expected goal share and high-danger shot share, the Canadiens have controlled less than 40% of shots and 33% of goals.
As far as defense personnel are concerned, there is a huge difference in the results too. The top four struggled, for lack of a better word. They are lagging, and lagging behind, by a large margin at 5v5.
On a more positive note, the pairing of Jaden Struble and Arbor Zekaj has been absolutely exceptional. Yes, they are facing a lower quality of competition, but you never want to look like a hot horse, especially in the playoffs.
The fact of the matter is that when the third pairing is on the ice, the Habs outscore, outscore, and outscore their opponents.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
It’s very easy to suggest that the Montreal Canadiens need better results from their top four finish.
However, head coach Martin Saint-Louis has limited options, especially if he wants to keep his excellent third pairing together.
Based on their experience over the past two seasons, I would argue that a reunion of Matheson and Hutson could be justified. In over 500 minutes together at 5v5, they made 54.9% of the shots. They also outshot their opponents by a margin of 32–21 (61.1%).
This will give Alexandre Carriere and Caden Guhle some more difficult moments to face, although, based on their history, they are quite suited to accomplish hellish tasks.
In over 600 minutes together at 5v5, Guhle and Carrier managed to be almost even, controlling 49.6% of the shots. They also outshot their opponents (56%), and led the way in high-danger scoring opportunities (53%).
With the changes in place, the Canadiens’ defensive shifts will be as follows:
Len Hutson – Mike Matheson
Caden Guhle – Alexander Carrier
Jaden Struble – Arbor Zekaj.
This was exactly the setup St.-Louis intended to play in game two, before the usual post-whistle antics derailed things, forcing special teams to spend an unreasonable amount of time on the ice.
Regardless, according to the numbers, if the Canadiens can somehow find a way to keep the pairings listed above intact, they will improve their chances of emerging from the series with an underdog win.
All Montreal Canadiens stats are 5v5 via Natural Stat Trick.
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