As we continue to discuss the upcoming NHL playoff series between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning, we have already established which team will have the advantage at 5v5.
Statistically speaking, the Bolts are the better team at even strength and by a fairly wide margin. And yet, once we filter out the results of the four games between the Habs and the Lightning, the Canadiens ultimately have the better shot share.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some special team stats that will power organizations in the playoffs.
Canadiens Vs. electric powerplay
There are two ways to look at this. The first involves judging the powerplay efficiency of the respective teams and declaring the winner. Thus, with a 23.1% efficiency, the Canadiens are the better team with the man advantage than the Lightning (20.7%).
However, once we dig a little, it becomes clear that the Habs are using their excellent shooting skills to maintain their powerplay, which would be considered ‘at risk’ once a thorough audit is completed.
While the Canadiens have the 10th-best power play in the league, and with the advantage of having the 10th-most goalscorers per 60 minutes of ice time, they are among the worst clubs in the entire league when it comes to regular shots as well as high-danger scoring opportunities.
The Lightning are worse than the Habs in both goals and efficiency, though the discrepancy between their shots and goals isn’t as glaring as we’re seeing in Montreal.
This presents the Canadiens with a reality that must be addressed in the playoffs: they probably score more goals on the power play than they want to. On the other side of the coin, it also suggests that they can improve their game with the man advantage by taking more shots.
Of course, this has been pointed out all year and very little has been done to improve the deteriorating state of the power play.
Canadiens Vs. thunderbolt penalty killing
The Canadiens are the better team on the power play, but the same cannot be said on the penalty kill. The Lightning kill more penalties, allow fewer routine and high-danger scoring opportunities, not to mention actual goals.
All things considered, one team is elite, while the other is struggling to emerge from the bottom of the league.
To make matters more interesting, Andrei Vasilevskiy had the third-highest save percentage on the penalty kill in the entire regular season (.900), while Jacob Dobbs (.859) was 26th. As for Jacob Fowler, he was only on the ice for 90 penalty kill minutes, finishing the season with an .873 save percentage in that position.
Simply put, while we can debate how much of an advantage the Canadiens actually have on the power play, we probably shouldn’t waste too much time debating which club will have a significant edge on the penalty kill.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics via Natural Stat Trick.
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