Now that the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabers have managed to win two games apiece in their second-round series, it’s time to take a look at some of the stats behind the exciting matchup.
While the Canadiens have vastly outshot the Sabres, especially at 5v5, it’s worth noting that the underlying numbers point to a Buffalo team with the ability to take control of the series.
Canadiens Vs. sabers at 5v5
Unlike the series versus the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Canadiens are actually outscoring their opponents in the second round, but not by a huge margin.
As things stand, the Habs have a 51.9% advantage in shots (162-150), not to mention a 55.7% advantage in shots on net (78-62). This leads to a 9-5 advantage in goals scored at 5v5, which is a very solid output from a team that gets little to no 5v5 goals from its first line.
Once we dig a little more, it becomes clear that the Sabers overperformed with their shots, as they managed to generate slightly more high-danger scoring chances than the Canadiens (38-36), giving them 52.8% of expected goals.
Simply put, the Canadiens are working on quantity, while the Sabers are focusing on quality.
Impact of special teams
Head coach Martin St-Louis didn’t mince words when discussing the Game 4 loss.
“I think special teams played a huge role,” St. Louis said. “It’s hard to believe we only got one goal on the power play. I felt like we had a lot of chances. Our captain and goalkeeper played well, Dobbs also kept us in. We didn’t have a good start.”
Let’s unpack that statement in sections.
He’s absolutely right that special teams played a huge role.
Montreal had seven powerplay opportunities, and only managed to score on one, while the Sabers scored twice with the four man advantage.
A little more traffic in front of the Sabers netminder will likely provide additional second-chance scoring opportunities, but for the most part, they are generating a fair number of quality scoring chances on the power play. He just lacked the finish on Tuesday.
As far as their captain is concerned, it is worth noting that the first line’s play was impressive from a statistical point of view. When Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkowski and Cole Caufield were on the ice, the Habs controlled over 80% of the shots and 75% of high-danger scoring opportunities. It was a good game from a process standpoint, but now that the Canadiens are in the second round of the playoffs, results are more important than solid underlying numbers.
First line production needs to start, and they have no grace period left to get there.
Fortunately, all signs point to this trio being ready to explode on offense.
As for the third comment, regarding their poor start, you would find it hard to disagree with the head coach, but it would also be fair to say that this falls under the preparation category, and that duty is, at least partly, the coaching staff’s.
Truth be told, there is always room for improvement, but all things considered it is incredibly encouraging for the Canadiens to be two wins away from the Eastern Conference Finals just a few years into their rebuild.
And if they can continue to be a dominant goal-scoring force at 5v5, that will go a long way to helping them hold a significant advantage over the remaining three-game series, but they will need a little help from their special teams guys to accomplish this impressive feat.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics via Natural Stat Trick.
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