Celtics deserve an asterisk after missing nearly foolproof championship rule

After suffering a brutal 103-84 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night, the Boston Celtics were disqualified from meeting the 40-20 rule, which argues that to win the NBA championship, a team must win 40 games before falling out of 20 during the regular season. The fact that this theory comes from 13-time NBA champion Phil Jackson should be proof enough of its validity. If that’s not the case, consider that 40 of the last 44 NBA champions have crossed the 40-20 threshold.

Since the Celtics failed to follow Jackson’s nearly infallible rule, are they doomed? History probably says so, but there are some important contexts that should make the green team get a pass this season.

It took 58 games for the Celtics to reach 20 losses, and star forward Jayson Tatum suited up for zero of those contests. The six-time All-Star and 2024 NBA champion is still recovering from an injury he suffered in May, yet there is reason to believe he could return to play before the regular season ends.

Without one of their franchise cornerstones, the Celtics still Almost managed to satisfy Jackson’s 40-20 rule. This is an accomplishment in itself, as the C’s were considered dead by many pundits and preseason projections.

Rather than blitzing through a gap year, the Celtics have fully recovered from their offseason losses – including centers Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet as well as guard Jrue Holiday – and have continued to develop homegrown talent.

Nearly every young Celtic, from rookie Hugo Gonzalez to third-year wing Jordan Walsh, has improved, and so have most of the veterans. While reigning Sixth Man of the Year Peyton Pritchard and starting guard Derrick White aren’t having career years (although, they’re still producing at a high level), Celtics star Jaylen Brown is playing some of the best basketball of his life.

In his 10th year in the NBA, Brown is setting new career highs in points, rebounds and assists per game. His increased usage in Tatum’s absence has undoubtedly boosted his numbers, but, statistics aside, the 2026 Eastern Conference All-Star starter is playing winning basketball.

So, even without Tatum, the rest of the Celtics have stepped up and posted an impressive 38-20 record in nearly 60 games on the season. If they beat the Nuggets, they could reach the 40-20 rule with an easier matchup against the Brooklyn Nets on Friday night.

And while that hypothetical may no longer matter, what the Celtics could look like with Tatum does matter. The rehabbing star has been “full steam ahead” in 5-on-5 team scrimmages, according to NBA insider Shams Charania, meaning a return in March is not out of the question. His presence on an already overachieving Celtics squad will undoubtedly help them contend in a tough, but winnable East.

If Tatum had been healthy, it would have been pretty safe to say the Celtics would have been eligible for the 40-20 rule this season along with the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons. Additionally, it is not unheard of for a championship team to win without its best player.

What the Milwaukee Bucks did without Giannis Antetokounmpo

During the shortened 2020-21 campaign, the Milwaukee Bucks failed to meet the 40-20 rule. Like the Celtics, they were shy in a few games, yet that didn’t stop them from winning the 2021 NBA Finals by defeating the Phoenix Suns in six games.

Before the Bucks’ first championship in 50 years, star center Giannis Antetokounmpo injured his knee in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals and was forced to exit the early loss. Fortunately, he did not suffer any major injuries, however, and he sat out Games 5 and 6 of the ECF against the Atlanta Hawks with the series tied 2–2.

However, that doesn’t mean the Bucks bowed out. They won both games by double digits without their star player, which is somewhat reminiscent of how the Celtics have been able to operate without Tatum.

Of course, Antetokounmpo wasn’t injured as severely or for as long as Tatum, but this example proves that a team that falls short of the 40-20 threshold can still win everything even without their guy at full strength.

Seeding and eye test

The 2020–21 Bucks met another potential championship qualifier, despite losing 24 times before earning 40 wins. Those were the numbers. 3 seed, and NBA history shows that almost every champion has been a three-seed or higher.

The only exception is the 1968–1969 Celtics, who were ranked no. 4 seed, and the 1994–1995 Houston Rockets, who were number one. 6 seeds. Both of those teams were fresh off last season’s championship, and if there’s any team with a championship pedigree in the East, it’s the Celtics.

They may not be defending a title like the aforementioned teams, but they did capture a championship in 2024 under Tatum, Brown and head coach Joe Mazzulla. Those pieces are not left and although the Celtics violated the 40-20 law, they comply with the seeding stipulation.

Boston currently sits in second place in the East with a 2.5 game lead over the third-place New York Knicks. The Celtics aren’t cemented in that spot, but they’ve been taking up residence there recently. Also, more importantly, they have played their best basketball recently, winning nine of their last 10 games before losing to the Nuggets for the second night in a row.

Despite unofficial championship terms, the 2025-26 Celtics simply pass the eye test. They are fourth in net rating and have survived some early struggles to become a top-five team in the NBA this season. They crash the boards hard, defend well, and can’t be taken lightly, especially when the Browns are doing it.

Add Tatum to the mix and the Celtics are legitimate contenders. Not exactly a favorite for the title, but a contender — no matter what Jackson says.


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