The Montreal Canadiens will face the Buffalo Sabers in the second round of the 2026 NHL playoffs. As we did in the first round against the Tampa Bay Lightning, we will preview the series by analyzing some of the most important 5v5 statistics powering teams during the regular season.
Next we’ll look at how the Sabers and Habs performed when they faced each other on four occasions. We’ll also evaluate special teams and x-factors in a follow-up article.
Canadiens and Sabers regular-season statistics (5v5)
Like the Lightning, the Sabers are expected to have the edge at 5v5 based on regular season results, but the discrepancy between the Habs and Sabers is much less noticeable.
In other words, even though the Sabers take more shots, score more expected goals, and have a greater share of high-danger scoring opportunities, the Canadiens are definitely still in the mix.
Shooting and goaltending
The Sabers have the advantage as far as netminding goes, although we must remember that Montreal’s regular season numbers include Samuel Montembeault’s results.
During the playoffs, rookie goaltender Jacob Dobbs has produced a .923 save percentage (all situations), though the Sabers have also received excellent netminding from Alex Lyon, who is sporting an impressive .955 save percentage.
Once again, Montreal’s only advantage in the regular season was shooting percentage, although Buffalo was also a top-5 team in that regard. They are also a better team when it comes to their high-danger shooting efficiency.
Target
The final metrics are fairly straightforward.
The Canadiens scored a lot of goals, but the Sabers did a slightly better job. The same can be said about his ability to reduce opponents’ goal scoring.
Canadiens Vs. Sabers Head-to-Head Statistics
To get a better idea of how they played head-to-head, we pulled the numbers from their four meetings in the regular season. Both teams won few games, and each game was played before February. In other words, a lot has changed since then, but it’s still worth keeping in mind.
The Canadiens outshot the Sabers at 5v5 (8–6), and yet, Buffalo held the edge in shot share, expected goals and high-danger scoring opportunities, though there was no notable difference in the latter.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
The numbers suggest the Sabers are the favorites, but that’s not a surprise.
And dismissing the Hubs in this series certainly isn’t enough. It won’t be easy to emerge from the seven-game series with a win, and they will once again be considered underdogs, but the Canadians have a strange way of bringing out their best when they are facing adversity.
In fact, the Lightning had the advantage in almost every statistical category going into the first round of the NHL playoffs, and yet, the Canadiens still found a way to win.
Very good! Alex Newhook took the puck out of mid-air to score and deliver #GoHabsGo 2-1 lead! pic.twitter.com/FOpO7QTPxh
– Montreal Hockey Now (@MTLhockeynow) 4 May 2026
Buffalo’s style of play is slightly more aggressive than Tampa’s, in that they out-muscle their opponents, reducing the number of passing and skating lanes available and thus creating a no-fly zone between the blue lines.
If that’s not disappointing, it’s a particularly efficient strategy to deal with a situation that should push the league’s youngest team to its limits.
All Montreal Canadiens stats are 5v5, via Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise noted.
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