
The Houston Astros have faced some tough situations recently. After finishing in first place at the beginning of the year, they are now in last place in the American League West with a 10–18 record. Despite a ridiculously good offense, their pitching has repeatedly lost them games.
In fact, their offense has been one of the best (if not the best). Best) in MLB. The club ranked sixth in home runs (35), fifth in batting average (.259), fourth in RBI (136), slugging percentage (.436) and OPS (.782), and third in on-base percentage (.346). It is a historic disappointment for Astros fans that such a good offense has barely managed 10 wins across the board.
But the crown jewel of that Houston offense – the one hope that fans can cling to – has been the performance of Yordan Alvarez. And, oh my god, has it been good.
Picture painted by metrics
Alvarez has had a great start to 2026. The 28-year-old slugger is in bad form, leading MLB in home runs with 11 through 28 games. In fact, Alvarez leads MLB in every important hitting statistic (expect second place in slugging percentage) with a .353/.464/.755 slash line and an earth-shattering 1.219 OPS.
The craziest part? Expected metrics are even better. His xwOBA (.556), xBA (.381) and xSLG (.871) are all in the 100th percentile of MLB hitters. This means Alvarez is performing worse than he should and is still the best offensive player in the league. Nobody can do what he is doing now.
Batting run value is a Statcast metric that specifies the run impact on each pitch, hit or plate appearance based on its outcome. A positive number indicates production above average while a negative number would indicate production below average. This is the total for the entire season.
For context, in 2022 when New York Yankee Aaron Judge broke the American League record for home runs with 62, he had a stellar +90 BRV. Alvarez is on pace to have a +118 BRV.
the ever present question of stability
Like most things in life, baseball is a game that more than anything else asks whether something is sustainable. In most cases, the answer is no. And the same thing is true here also to a great extent. Alvarez probably won’t keep up these ridiculous statistics.
Perhaps.
That being said, if he accomplishes what he’s on pace to do: 224 hits, 64 home runs and 150 RBI. Needless to mention, Alvarez is on pace for 139 walks (both intentional and not). Those are historical numbers. Apart from the fact that Álvarez would hold the American League home run record, no player in all of MLB history has ever had a stat line like this.
You’ll notice I didn’t answer the stability question. The main reason for this is to prevent the dream of being an offensive powerhouse like Alvarez from ending. It would be incredible to see a player lose like that, especially with how young he is. It’s easy to forget that the slugger is only 28 years old.
Whether or not he finishes the season with Houston is another question entirely. He has already been the subject of trade rumors with the San Diego Padres (a club searching for a high-impact bat) and, although the Astros would be crazy to trade him, the club is not looking so attractive. Started the year last in the AL West with a 10–18 record.
Who knows what the future holds for Alvarez? It’s impossible to predict the future — especially in baseball — but the Houston slugger certainly looks formidable to start the 2026 season. No matter how this ends up, Alvarez will be fun to watch.
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