A field of 64 has been cut early in the NCAA Tournament. However, there has been very little chaos in March Madness, as evidenced by the fact that 13 teams have been seeded fifth or higher.
That means the best college basketball teams this season largely avoided upsets, leading to a battle between the true giants this weekend. Let’s take a look at our Sweet Sixteen predictions.
Purdue Boilermakers 83, Texas Longhorns 74
Credit goes to the Texas Longhorns, who made it to the Sweet Sixteen when we predicted they would fall out of the First Four. The Longhorns fell to NC State (68–66), but then managed to defeat No. 6-seeded BYU and No. 3-seeded Gonzaga by 14 combined points. However, as much as Texas has improved defensively during the NCAA Tournament, we don’t think that will continue against the Purdue Boilermakers. Facing a team that had the ninth-highest field goal percentage (50.3 percent) and ranked first in KenPom’s offensive efficiency during the regular season, we think four Boilermakers will score in double figures, with Trey Coffman-Wren leading the team in scoring and sending Purdue to the Elite Eight.
Nebraska Cornhuskers 72, Iowa Hawkeyes 68
We’re only getting one regular season rematch in the Sweet Sixteen: a battle between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Iowa Hawkeyes. The two Big Ten rivals will compete for both a spot in the Elite Eight and historic bragging rights. It’s also a shot at revenge against his former team for Nebraska star Pryce Sandfort as he faces off against another standout guard, Bennett Sturtz. Iowa won the first meeting 57–52 on February 17, but Nebraska won 84–75 in the regular season finale in overtime on March 8. In the rubber match, we think the Cornhuskers’ defense will lead the way to a tough win.
Arizona Wildcats 85, Arkansas Razorbacks 72
Can freshman Darius Acuff Jr. lead the Arkansas Razorbacks to the Elite Eight? It is definitely possible. Projected to be a top-10 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, Acuff has combined for 60 points and 13 assists in two March Madness games so far. However, the 6-foot-3 guard – as is the theme of this team – leaves a lot to be desired defensively. We fully expect Arizona Wildcats guard Jaden Bradley, the reigning Big 12 Player of the Year, to take full advantage of this. Coach John Calipari may feel good about putting his program further ahead than Kentucky, but the race will likely end there.
Houston Cougars 79, Illinois Fighting Illini 77
It probably isn’t wise to pick against Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars in the Sweet Sixteen. What we have a lot of confidence in right now is the ease with which the Illinois Fighting Illini score, as they have demonstrated in their first two tournament wins. The standout for Illinois has clearly been freshman guard Keaton Wagler – the Big Ten Freshman of the Year – but it’s a deep group that includes high-impact transfers like Andrej Stojakovic. However, home-court advantage matters immensely here. Sampson’s ability to prepare his team for a high-risk environment, combined with the pro-Houston atmosphere at Toyota Center, should be enough to swing a very tight game in the Cougars’ favor.
Duke Blue Devils 84, St. John’s Red Storm 75
Even with injuries that are keeping the Duke Blue Devils from becoming a clear title favorite, freshman Cameron Boozer is proving he can lead this team to a deep March Madness run. He has had double-double performances in both tournament games so far, including a 19-point, 11-rebound performance against TCU, where he shot 70 percent from the field. It’s also hard not to be impressed with how Isaiah Evans has filled the void left by Caleb Foster’s foot injury; Evans has averaged 17.7 points over his last three contests, including a clutch 17-point showing to help sink the Horned Frogs. We think it’s this duo’s star power that propels the Blue Devils to a convincing win over Rick Pitino and St. John’s.
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Michigan Wolverines 88, Alabama Crimson Tide 74
We believe the biggest shock of the Sweet Sixteen comes when the Alabama Crimson Tide takes the court against the Michigan Wolverines. Even getting this far without Aidan Holloway – who is suspended following his arrest last week – is impressive. The program did this by crushing Hofstra and Texas Tech by more than 20 points. However, there’s a reason Michigan went 19-1 in the Big Ten this season. The quartet of Ade Mara, Elliot Cadeau, Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. beats out Alabama’s offer. Michigan has a “core four” that can play different roles and take over the game at different moments. That’s what you need to reach the Elite Eight, and the Wolverines will likely make it easy on Friday.
Michigan State Spartans 72, UConn Huskies 69
Dan Hurley’s UConn Huskies vs. Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans. Need we say more? The most exciting part of this matchup is the opportunity to see what guard Jeremy Fears Jr. can do in the biggest game of his life. While Fears is a high-level facilitator, what has stood out about Michigan State this season is how well-rounded the team is on both ends of the floor. The new-look Huskies have shown more cohesiveness recently, but we think Fiers is on his way to a double-double, which, combined with his teammates’ great defense, sends Izzo to the Elite Eight.
Tennessee Volunteers 68, Iowa State Cyclones 67
Rick Barnes is attempting to make three consecutive Elite Eight appearances with the Tennessee Volunteers. What complicates this is that freshman Nate Ament is playing through an injury. On paper, the Iowa State Cyclones lineup is better, but All-American forward Joshua Jefferson will either be out or playing in the Sweet Sixteen with an ankle injury. We believe that matters, especially against a physical Volunteers team that defends very well. In a nail-biter, guard Ja’Coby Gillespie rallied the Volunteers in the second half and hit a clutch shot that sends Tennessee back to the Elite Eight for the third consecutive year.
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