We continue our series preview ahead of the first round matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning.
We know that the team that wins the battle at 5v5 will have a good chance of emerging victorious in the series. Additionally, the organization that features the best special teams will have a significant advantage in securing victory.
In addition to those important elements, let’s take a look at some X-factors that will impact the series between the Canadiens and Lightning.
top line players
It’s no secret that Canadians will live and die by the first line’s ability to generate sustainable levels of crime. The Lightning are well aware of this, which means Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkowski and Cole Caufield will likely have to face Tampa Bay’s top shutdown line of Gourde, Pontus Holmberg and Zemgus Girgensons.
When playing together, that line has controlled approximately 54.5% of shots, as well as 55.7% of expected goals at 5v5. In an admittedly limited sample size of just 30 minutes versus the Habs, they have actually controlled over 70% of the shots and 90% of the expected goals.
In a short series, matchups will play a key role, and it seems the most important matchup for the Canadiens will involve Tampa’s excellent shutdown trio versus their elite top line. Or perhaps more accurately, finding ways to strip their top line of the Lightning’s best defensive players.
On the other side of the coin, this may seem like the most obvious advice in the history of hockey, but the Canadiens would do well to help their chances by keeping a close eye on Nikita Kucherov.
The elite skater finished the year with 130 points, which was second overall in the NHL, behind only Connor McDavid (138 points). The second most productive Lightning player was Jake Guentzel, who finished the season with 88 points. This represents a 42-point discrepancy, significantly greater than the 13-point difference between the Canadiens’ top point producer (Suzuki, 101 points) and last forward (Caufield, 88 points).
It’s very easy to suggest that shutting down Kucherov is important for the Habs, especially when neither team has yet figured out how to accomplish this lofty goal, but the fact is that the Canadiens will want to keep an eye on Kucherov’s every move throughout the series.
In 42 career games against the Habs, Kucherov has scored 20 goals and added 29 assists.
Freshman Goaltenders
It is incredibly rare to see two rookie netminders tasked with protecting the net in a playoff series. First-year skaters are slightly more common, as it is much easier to convince a coach to enter the playoffs with a few rookie players than a pair of rookie netminders.
The Canadiens will have to rely on either Jacob Dobbs or Jacob Fowler to steal the show, although there’s still an outside chance, albeit slim, that we’ll see veteran netminder Samuel Montebault in the mix.
the gamble was thrown.
This could be seen as an obvious negative given Dobbs and Fowler’s lack of NHL experience, but the Montreal Canadiens aren’t your favorite club. While first-year players playing a significant role isn’t more common than in other NHL cities, it’s part of the path to success in Montreal.
In the long run, this could be the beginning of a trend in the NHL where goaltending results completely usurp experience as the most important factor driving usage in the playoffs.
rookie effect
Fowler and Dobbs aren’t the only newbies expected to play a role in the series. Ivan Demidov and Oliver Kapanen are expected to take over on the second line, once again lending credence to the theory that head coach Martin Saint-Louis does a great job trusting his young players in key roles.
On top of Demidov Kapanen, there are Adam Engstrom and David Rickenbacker on the blue line, two rookies who could play with greater frequency if injuries occur, or if Noah Dobson’s thumb injury doesn’t heal before more games are added to the docket.
To give you an idea of how both teams like to rely on different age groups, Tampa Bay’s top-scoring rookie center is Dominic James, who has seven goals and eight assists in 43 games.
Montreal, on the other hand, has the league’s top-scoring rookie in Demidov (62 points), not to mention the rookie with the third-most goals in Kapanen (22 points).
All Montreal Canadiens stats are 5v5, via Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise noted.
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